Week 1 Fantasy Recap

Alright, Week 1 is in the books and Buffalo already hosted Detroit on Thursday. I’m writing this Saturday, so this is everything through Bills-Lions. The rest of Week 2 is still sitting there on Sunday. I’m not waiting on Monday Night.

One week (plus a Thursday night) is not a season. But usage, health, and who actually stayed on the field? That stuff can stick. That’s what I’m looking for.

Stock up: Kenneth Walker, Ashton Jeanty, Dalton Kincaid, Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian Watson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Parker Washington, D’Andre Swift, James Cook

Stock down / caution: Christian McCaffrey, MarShawn Lloyd, Ladd McConkey (health), Brock Bowers (health), Colston Loveland’s box score, Puka Nacua and the Rams offense, Miami’s entire passing game

The scoreboard, real quick

SEA 13–10 NE (Darnold leaves early). SF 27–7 LAR (Australia). CHI 59–37 CAR (highest-scoring Week 1 game ever). CIN 33–27 TB. DET 31–30 NO (OT). BUF 36–31 HOU. BAL 41–23 IND. JAX 34–10 CLE. PIT 20–13 ATL. NYJ 23–10 TEN. ARI 26–14 LAC. LV 27–13 MIA. MIN 39–22 GB. PHI 24–22 WAS. NYG 28–20 DAL. KC 31–10 DEN (Monday).

Thursday: BUF 41–31 DET.

Sticky things (the ones that might actually last)

Workhorse backs are already separating. Gibbs had 29 carries for 156 and 2 scores in Week 1, then Detroit still funneled the passing game through him Thursday (6-61-1) even when the rushing line was just 16-52. The Lions went down 21-0 after seven plays and still didn’t turn the backfield into a democracy. Sione Vaki is the clear backup now that Isiah Pacheco is out long-term. That’s a RB1 workload until proven otherwise. I wanted Gibbs under $70 in auction for a reason.

Walker in Kansas City is the one that might move rest-of-season projections the most. 23 carries, 173 yards, a 60-yard touchdown, plus a receiving score. Patrick Mahomes looked fine coming back from the knee (184 passing, 2 passing TDs, a rushing score) and the Chiefs just handed K9 the job I was hoping they’d give him this summer. If this is what “Andy Reid with a real lead back” looks like, Walker is in the league-winner conversation. Emmett Johnson did pop for a 26-yard catch on third down, so he’s still the handcuff I wanted late. But this was not a timeshare.

Jeanty did the Jeanty thing. 23 carries, 102 yards, 6 catches, 45 yards, 2 receiving scores. 29 touches with Brock Bowers out. That’s standalone value and then some. If Kubiak is going to keep dumping the ball to him like that, the receiving work is the sticky part. Two receiving TDs in a game is not a weekly baseline, but the 6 targets are.

Chicago’s offense is a cheat code until somebody proves it isn’t. Caleb Williams had 21-of-29 for 269, plus 65 on the ground and 4 total TDs. Swift went 18-124-3. Kyle Monangai needed 10 carries to hit 100 and scored. 59 points. I know, it’s Carolina. I also know Ben Johnson just put up the highest-scoring Week 1 game in NFL history. I’m raising the Bears’ scoring environment immediately. The split is the only thing that keeps Swift from being a smash every week. 56% snaps for Swift, 44% for Monangai. Both guys can eat.

Dalton Kincaid looks like a top-5 tight end. That’s not a Week 1 pop-off. That’s two games of playing time. 73.7% of snaps in Week 1 (5-130) and then 7-95-1 on Thursday with a 71% route rate. Buffalo is using 13 personnel a lot more than they did last year, and Kincaid is staying on the field in those run looks. I said in the auction post I didn’t need a backup TE if I got Bowers or Loveland. If you have Kincaid, you don’t need a backup either. If you have Kincaid and one of those guys, it is time to shop one.

James Cook might actually be getting the work I was skeptical about. I wrote before the season that I didn’t see the Bills changing the “Cook comes off the field on 3rd down” thing. Thursday they did. 21 carries, 135 yards, a score, and he stayed out there on passing downs. One game after a quieter Week 1 (57 rushing yards). If that third-down role sticks, Cook’s floor jumps.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the Seahawks offense after Sam Darnold left. 8-122-1, 92% of snaps, 45.8% of the targets. Drew Lock threw it to him 10 times. That’s an alpha role even if Seattle’s passing game gets worse for a couple weeks.

Chris Olave looked fully healthy. 10-182 in a 31-30 overtime loss. Tyler Shough was a mess early (3 turnovers) and still threw for 410 and 3 scores. I flagged Olave as a riser after Jordyn Tyson went down in camp. This is what that looks like. Target volume like that is sticky. Shough’s turnovers are also sticky until they aren’t.

Christian Watson after getting paid: 6-147-2, including an 81-yard score. Jordan Love threw for 387 in a loss. I was really high on Watson in the auction plan and I’m not backing off. Matthew Golden seeing 12 targets (6-95) is interesting too. The Packers can pass. They just couldn’t close.

Parker Washington was the Jags’ best receiver in a 34-10 win. 5-83-1. Trevor Lawrence went 18-of-23 for 245 and 4 touchdowns. Liam Coen believer checking in. I wanted Parker as one of my next-tier WRs in auction. This is why. Bhayshul Tuten got the lead-back look (15-66). Not explosive, but it’s a role.

Trey McBride opened 9-95-1. That’s just Trey McBride being Trey McBride. Bank it.

Amon-Ra St. Brown on Thursday: 9-142-2. The Lions’ passing game still runs through him and Gibbs. Jameson Williams was 2-33. Isaac TeSlaa played a lot of 11 personnel and finished 2-26. St. Brown is the one you don’t overthink.

Injuries that actually change rest of season

A.J. Brown is on IR with a high-ankle sprain. Four-game minimum, and the reporting has been more like six weeks. That’s a first-half-of-the-season hole in New England. Mack Hollins and DeMario Douglas get the snaps. Drake Maye threw 3 picks in the fourth quarter of a 13-10 loss. I’m not rushing to stream Patriots pass catchers, but Hollins is the deep-league dart if you need a body.

Ladd McConkey left Week 1 with ribs after 5-82-1 on 7 targets. He’s questionable for Sunday against Vegas. This is the one that hurts my portfolio the most. Ladd is my highest best-ball exposure and the player I said I’d get in a bidding war for. The Chargers offense already looked stuck (26-14 loss to Arizona) and it completely died after he left. If he sits, Tre Harris and Quentin Johnston are the next looks. I’m not selling Ladd. I’m also not starting him Sunday unless we get a real “he’s playing” confirmation.

Brock Bowers had the meniscus trim before Week 1, missed the opener, and is doubtful Sunday at the Chargers. Kubiak sounded more Week 3 than Week 2. Michael Mayer ran the route share and saw 7 targets (6-32). Stream Mayer if you need a TE this week. Do not panic-sell Bowers. A game or two was the original timeline.

Zay Flowers put up 5-150-1 in a half and then left with a hamstring. Baltimore is calling it day-to-day and the MRI talk has been “not serious.” Hamstrings lie. Have Rashod Bateman ready. Lamar was 17-of-22 for 324 with a rushing score before the offense flattened in the second half. Derrick Henry still went 24-144-3. If Flowers sits, Henry’s volume gets even sillier.

Sam Darnold has a weird hip/glute soft-tissue thing. Expected to miss Sunday in Arizona. Drew Lock is the fill-in. Lock is a Superflex dart, not a 1QB start. JSN still is.

Kyler Murray is in concussion protocol after a nasty hit on a slide. Kevin O’Connell isn’t rushing him. Carson Wentz already came in and threw 3 TDs in the 29-point finish against Green Bay. Wentz at Chicago is streaming bait in 2QB, and Justin Jefferson stays in lineups either way.

DJ Moore (now in Buffalo, still weird to type) left Thursday with a left-shoulder AC sprain. Not considered serious, but Joe Brady is going to take the extra days. He might miss the Chargers in Week 3. Keon Coleman went 6-63 on 6 targets after Moore exited and looks like the add if you need a WR4. Josh Palmer already has 2 TDs in 2 weeks on barely any volume. That’s the Josh Palmer experience.

Chig Okonkwo left Washington’s opener hurt. If he misses time, that’s a TE streamer situation I do not love, but it’s a situation.

Myles Garrett had arthroscopic knee surgery after the Australia game. That’s a Rams defensive problem more than a fantasy one, but it does make the Rams’ offense-vs-the-world script a little more likely. Not sure that helps Puka if the Rams are going to put up 7 points.

Isiah Pacheco had back surgery in Detroit and is out a long time. We already saw that coming in the preseason notes. Vaki, not Jacob Saylors, is Gibbs’ backup. I wouldn’t spend much FAAB there unless Gibbs gets nicked.

Trending up (raise the rest-of-season number)

Kenneth Walker. I floated him as a possible workhorse in the auction post and also said he’d never really been one. Week 1 looked like the version the Chiefs traded for. 173 rushing yards is not the expectation every week. The 23 carries might be.

Jeanty. 29 touches with Bowers out is a statement. Even when Bowers comes back, this backfield is Jeanty’s.

Kincaid. Two weeks. High snaps. Big play ability. I’m treating him like a locked-in TE1.

Josh Allen. I know, I know. He had 4 total TDs in Week 1 and then 5 on Thursday (3 passing, 2 rushing). The new stadium is apparently also a video game. He’s the QB1 until further notice.

St. Brown and Gibbs. Detroit’s passing game can look messy and these two still finish as weekly difference-makers. Goff went 26-of-38 for 327 and 4 TDs on Thursday after a quieter opener. That’s the Lions we drafted.

Watson and the Packers passing game. Love is going to throw it. Watson is going to hit explosives. Golden’s target volume is the sleeper piece.

Parker Washington and TLaw. I wanted both in the auction. Week 1 was the “Liam Coen offense did not forget how to function” tape.

Breece Hall went 22-102-1 and the Jets held the ball for almost 39 minutes. I said the groin in camp shouldn’t ding him. It didn’t. The Jets might not be good enough for this to be a weekly smash, but the volume is real.

Derrick Henry is Henry. 144 and 3 scores. You don’t raise him because you already had him in the RB1 tier. You just stop looking for reasons to fade him.

Mike Evans scored in the 49ers debut (6-49-1). Brock Purdy threw 3 TDs. If the 49ers keep using 21 personnel a ton, Evans is a useful WR2 even if he’s sharing with De’Zhaun Stribling and whoever else is healthy that week.

Trending the wrong way

CMC’s usage is the one that should make you squint. 10 carries for 68, 5-20 receiving, 8 targets. That’s fine production. It’s 55% of the snaps. Kaelon Black had 14 carries for 65 on 44% of the snaps. I said in the auction plan that I expected usage to dip a little and efficiency to bounce back. The efficiency part showed up (6.8 YPC). The snap share is lower than I wanted. I’m not dumping CMC. I’m also not pretending this is 2023 CMC until the snap share climbs.

Lloyd did not seize the Packers backfield. Josh Jacobs is still on the commissioner’s exempt list, and Green Bay still started Chris Brooks. Lloyd finished 13-37-0 and didn’t catch his only target. 2.8 yards a pop. I flipped on him after Jacobs went on the list and said the 70s/80s might be good value. After Week 1, he looks more like a committee back with no passing-game role. I was closer to right in Week 2 of the preseason when I didn’t want him in the 120s. The volume might get better against the Jets on Sunday. The profile did not scream league winner.

Loveland played 86% of snaps and 82% of routes in a 59-point game and caught zero balls. That’s an empty box score with a pretty okay process. I still want him. I also need him to get more than a couple of targets before I keep talking about him as the focal point of the Bears offense. Swift and Monangai stole the show.

The Rams offense was a brick. Stafford, no passing scores. Puka 5-74 on 9 targets. Kyren’s 5-yard rushing TD was the only fantasy event. One game in Australia, Myles Garrett already having surgery, Giants on Monday. I’m not burying Puka. I am lowering the Week 2 confidence until we see a normal home script.

Herbert and the Chargers under Mike McDaniel did not hum. 209 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, and the offense fell apart when Ladd left. I was buying the McDaniel hype train all summer. One ugly opener is not the death of that thesis. It is a reminder that Ladd’s health is the hinge.

Miami converted 2 of 10 third downs. Malik Willis threw for 220 with a pick and ran in their only score. If you drafted Dolphins skill players for a functional passing game, Week 1 was a sit-and-wait. Jaylen Waddle needs this to look different in San Francisco on Sunday.

The Falcons passing game is the other mess. Bijan still had 173 yards from scrimmage (83 rush, 8-90-1 receiving) in a 20-13 loss. That’s the good news. Cooper Rush going 12-of-22 for 143 and 2 picks is the bad news. I faded Bijan a bit because I thought Atlanta might be bad with Tua. If Rush is the guy, the passing ceiling is even lower. Bijan can survive as a volume RB. The rest of that offense is on thin ice.

Baker put the ball on the ground three times. Emeka Egbuka didn’t get the clean Week 1 I wanted after the toe stuff in camp. Tampa can still score. I’m just not trusting Baker as a weekly QB2 until the fumbles calm down.

League-winner watch

Walker, if the Chiefs stay this run-heavy.

Kincaid, if 70%+ snaps is the new normal. Tight end is where seasons get won because everybody else is streaming.

Jeanty, because 29-touch games in a functional Raiders offense (Cousins threw 3 TDs without Bowers) are championship stuff.

Watson. Big-play WR who just reminded everyone he is big and fast, on a team that will throw.

Parker Washington is the cheaper version of that sentence. Not a first-round league winner. A late-round one. Those count too.

Chicago’s offense as a stack. If you have Williams plus Swift or a Bears pass catcher, you’re watching the highest-scoring Week 1 game in history and wondering if this is just who they are now.

Josh Allen is already a league winner. That’s not a take, that’s a public service announcement.

A few more notes before Sunday

Jeremiyah Love scored in his Cardinals debut. I had bumped him down after the ankle in camp. Keep tracking the share with Tyler Allgeier. One score is not a role.

Isaiah Likely went 8-78-2 in John Harbaugh’s Giants debut. Jaxson Dart threw 3 TDs. Najee Harris was inactive. Cam Skattebo ran for 81 and a score, with Tyrone Tracy mixed in. I said I was avoiding Tracy at all costs. I’m not walking that back yet, but I also don’t love that New York’s backfield is already a three-man mess. Likely is the Giants skill player I would actually add.

Dontayvion Wicks scored in the Eagles debut (2-73-1). Dallas Goedert had 4-77-2. Saquon was 15-83. Philadelphia can win while the star WRs are quiet. That’s good for Goedert. Less good if you spent up at WR.

Nico Collins was 7-75-1 on 10 targets. Perfectly fine, and Houston still lost a 36-31 track meet. David Montgomery scored 3 times on 20 carries and 3 catches. Woody Marks mixed in. Montgomery’s efficiency was ugly (3.0 YPC). The touchdowns will regress. The goal-line role might not.

Jonathan Taylor went 98 rushing yards and 2 scores in a blowout loss. Daniel Jones was 166 yards and a late score. JT is fine. The Colts passing game is not something I’m buying this week at Kansas City.

Sam LaPorta played basically every snap Thursday after a lighter Week 1. 6-52-1. If you faded him because of the back/hip stuff, the snap count is the green light.

George Kittle was on a shorter leash in Australia (47% snaps, 5 targets). That’s ramp-up, not a fade.

What I’m watching Sunday

Ladd’s inactive list. If he’s out, I’m interested in Harris more than Johnston, but it’s a dart.

Bowers’ pregame workout. I expect a sit.

Whether Henderson is back for New England. If not, Rhamondre is a volume start again.

Wentz vs the Bears. That’s a points-over game waiting to happen. Jefferson, Swift, Monangai, maybe even a Wentz stream.

Lloyd vs the Jets. I need to see him get the passing downs and the early-down lead. Week 1 did not give me that.

And then we can talk about the rest of Week 2 after the Sunday slate. Giants-Rams on Monday can wait.