Drafted skill players from 2023 through 2026, scored from free college season files and nflverse draft slots. Use Best ball to rank a class the way a rookie draft should: early capital first, college production as the tiebreaker. Use Sleepers for day-3 profiles with a loud college season, the list to mine in redraft.
Where a player is drafted is still the strongest predictor of NFL snaps, and snaps are most of fantasy points. Pick 1 scores near the top of the scale. A third-round pick does not. On the best-ball sort, draft slot is 55% of the board score.
Raw yards follow the offense. The useful number is the best season's share of team receiving yards, or scrimmage yards for a back. About 20% is the historical receiver line. Tight ends clear a lower bar, near 15%.
Breakout age is the first season that share showed up. A 19-year-old who already owned the offense has been more likely to hold up than a 23-year-old doing it for the first time. Quarterbacks use draft age instead.
Each player is matched to three earlier prospects at the same position with a close share, breakout age, efficiency, and draft slot, and at least eight games in their first two NFL seasons. Their early half-PPR is the reality check. No single college stat is destiny, and class studies flip year to year.
Sorted by board score. Draft slot is 55% of that number, college production is 45%.
Higher is a louder college season. Further left is earlier draft capital. The horizontal line is the sleeper bar.
RB · 2026
Notre Dame · pick 3 · 9.0 half-PPR/game in 2 NFL games
College
85
Draft
98
Board
92
Same position, earlier class, at least 8 games in the first two NFL seasons. Closest in share, breakout age, efficiency, and draft slot.
| Player | Pick | Best | Age | College | Board | NFL | Similar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiyah LoveRB · Notre Dame | #3 | 31% | 19.0 | 85 | 92 | 9.0 · 2g | 15.3 |
| Jordyn TysonWR · Arizona State | #8 | 34% | 20.0 | 87 | 90 | — | 7.6 |
| Carnell TateWR · Ohio State | #4 | 22% | 20.0 | 79 | 89 | 5.0 · 2g | 10.0 |
| Fernando MendozaQB · Indiana | #1 | 0.29 EPA | 22.0 | 71 | 86 | — | 15.2 |
| Makai LemonWR · USC | #20 | 30% | 20.0 | 81 | 81 | 1.2 · 2g | 9.8 |
| KC ConcepcionWR · Texas A&M | #24 | 28% | 20.0 | 76 | 78 | 5.5 · 2g | 10.3 |
| Kenyon SadiqTE · Oregon | #16 | 16% | 20.0 | 65 | 76 | 6.3 · 2g | 6.3 |
| Ty SimpsonQB · Alabama | #13 | 0.17 EPA | 23.0 | 54 | 73 | — | 16.9 |
| Denzel BostonWR · Washington | #39 | 28% | 20.0 | 78 | 72 | 15.5 · 2g | 10.0 |
| Eli StowersTE · Vanderbilt | #54 | 28% | 21.0 | 89 | 71 | — | 6.0 |
| Omar CooperWR · Indiana | #30 | 22% | 21.0 | 64 | 70 | 3.5 · 1g | 2.2 |
| De'Zhaun StriblingWR · Ole Miss | #33 | 19% | — | 61 | 67 | — | 8.1 |
| Ted HurstWR · Georgia State · G5 | #84 | 31% | 20.0 | 95 | 66 | 4.4 · 2g | 3.1 |
| Germie BernardWR · Alabama | #47 | 23% | 21.0 | 63 | 62 | 5.5 · 1g | 2.2 |
| Caleb DouglasWR · Texas Tech | #75 | 25% | 20.0 | 79 | 61 | 7.4 · 2g | 2.6 |
| Jadarian PriceRB · Notre Dame | #32 | 14% | — | 42 | 59 | 5.7 · 2g | 12.1 |
| Antonio WilliamsWR · Clemson | #71 | 23% | 20.0 | 71 | 59 | 9.2 · 2g | 4.6 |
| Zachariah BranchWR · Georgia | #79 | 28% | 21.0 | 73 | 57 | 1.2 · 2g | 5.2 |
| Chris Brazzell IIWR · Tennessee | #83 | 27% | 21.0 | 74 | 56 | — | 3.6 |
| Elijah SarrattWR · Indiana | #115 | 27% | 21.0 | 88 | 56 | — | 2.8 |
| Carson BeckQB · Miami | #65 | 0.27 EPA | 24.0 | 61 | 56 | — | 9.7 |
| Chris BellWR · Louisville | #94 | 34% | 20.0 | 76 | 55 | 1.5 · 2g | 2.7 |
| Brenen ThompsonWR · Mississippi State | #105 | 34% | 22.0 | 80 | 54 | 1.8 · 1g | 5.7 |
| Drew AllarQB · Penn State | #76 | 0.22 EPA | 22.0 | 62 | 53 | — | 14.3 |
| Skyler BellWR · UConn · G5 | #125 | 34% | 22.0 | 84 | 53 | — | 3.8 |
| Sam RoushTE · Stanford | #69 | 21% | 21.0 | 56 | 52 | 1.4 · 1g | 3.5 |
| Malachi FieldsWR · Notre Dame | #74 | 20% | 22.0 | 59 | 52 | 3.5 · 1g | 7.5 |
| Ja'Kobi LaneWR · USC | #80 | 19% | — | 62 | 52 | 1.6 · 1g | 3.1 |
| Emmett JohnsonRB · Nebraska | #161 | 38% | 21.0 | 88 | 50 | 6.2 · 2g | 10.2 |
| Justin JolyTE · NC State | #152 | 21% | 20.0 | 83 | 49 | — | 2.6 |
| Eli RaridonTE · Notre Dame | #95 | 17% | 21.0 | 62 | 48 | 5.1 · 2g | 4.9 |
| Nate BoerkircherTE · Texas A&M | #56 | 6% | — | 37 | 48 | 1.4 · 1g | 3.8 |
| Max KlareTE · Ohio State | #61 | 13% | — | 41 | 48 | — | 4.3 |
| Mike Washington Jr.RB · Arkansas | #122 | 23% | 22.0 | 69 | 47 | 2.4 · 2g | 5.1 |
| Marlin KleinTE · Michigan | #59 | 10% | — | 36 | 46 | 2.1 · 1g | 2.3 |
| Jonah ColemanRB · Washington | #108 | 22% | 21.0 | 63 | 46 | 6.7 · 2g | 4.7 |
| Josh CameronWR · Baylor | #191 | 24% | 21.0 | 82 | 44 | 4.5 · 2g | 1.8 |
| Oscar DelpTE · Georgia | #73 | 9% | — | 38 | 43 | 1.3 · 1g | 3.5 |
| Eli HeidenreichRB · Navy · G5 | #230 | 26% | 21.0 | 84 | 43 | 0.0 · 2g | 2.4 |
| Zavion ThomasWR · LSU | #89 | 17% | — | 46 | 42 | 0.0 · 1g | 6.8 |
| Cade KlubnikQB · Clemson | #110 | 0.10 EPA | 22.0 | 56 | 42 | — | 10.3 |
| Matthew HibnerTE · SMU | #133 | 12% | — | 63 | 42 | 1.8 · 1g | 5.1 |
| Kevin ColemanWR · Missouri | #177 | 32% | 21.0 | 73 | 42 | 0.0 · 1g | 4.3 |
| Adam RandallRB · Clemson | #174 | 23% | 21.0 | 71 | 41 | — | 4.7 |
| Lewis BondWR · Boston College | #204 | 30% | 20.0 | 75 | 40 | — | 3.5 |
| Nicholas SingletonRB · Penn State | #165 | 21% | 18.0 | 67 | 40 | 1.0 · 1g | 7.8 |
| Anthony SmithWR · East Carolina · G5 | #218 | 32% | 22.0 | 76 | 40 | — | 5.6 |
| Demond ClaiborneRB · Wake Forest | #198 | 29% | 20.0 | 73 | 40 | 0.7 · 1g | 4.9 |
| Kaelon BlackRB · Indiana | #90 | 15% | — | 39 | 39 | 5.0 · 2g | 10.2 |
| Kaytron AllenRB · Penn State | #187 | 29% | 22.0 | 70 | 39 | 2.0 · 2g | 3.1 |
| Tanner KoziolTE · Houston | #164 | 25% | — | 65 | 39 | — | 1.6 |
| Emmanuel Henderson Jr.WR · Kansas | #199 | 28% | 21.0 | 68 | 37 | — | 2.4 |
| Cyrus AllenWR · Cincinnati | #176 | 23% | 22.0 | 63 | 37 | 0.0 · 1g | 3.1 |
| CJ WilliamsWR · Stanford | #203 | 27% | — | 68 | 37 | — | 2.8 |
| Joe RoyerTE · Cincinnati | #170 | 18% | 22.0 | 59 | 36 | — | 2.4 |
| Malik BensonWR · Oregon | #195 | 19% | — | 62 | 35 | 0.2 · 2g | 3.1 |
| Reggie VirgilWR · Texas Tech | #143 | 18% | — | 49 | 34 | — | 4.5 |
| Jaren KanakTE · Oklahoma | #225 | 17% | 21.0 | 61 | 33 | — | 2.0 |
| Will KacmarekTE · Ohio State | #87 | 3% | — | 23 | 33 | 0.5 · 2g | 1.9 |
| Kendrick LawWR · Kentucky | #168 | 19% | — | 51 | 33 | — | 2.8 |
| Riley NowakowskiTE · Indiana | #169 | 12% | — | 49 | 31 | 0.0 · 1g | 2.5 |
| Colbie YoungWR · Georgia | #140 | 11% | — | 41 | 31 | 1.2 · 1g | 1.6 |
| Josh CuevasTE · Alabama | #173 | 11% | — | 49 | 31 | — | 2.6 |
| Carsen RyanTE · BYU | #248 | 19% | 22.0 | 59 | 31 | 0.0 · 1g | 2.2 |
| Dallen BentleyTE · Utah | #256 | 23% | 24.0 | 58 | 30 | — | 2.2 |
| Seydou TraoreTE · Mississippi State | #180 | 13% | — | 48 | 30 | — | 2.1 |
| Behren MortonQB · Texas Tech | #234 | 0.18 EPA | 24.0 | 54 | 29 | — | 11.6 |
| Athan KaliakmanisQB · Rutgers | #223 | 0.21 EPA | 23.0 | 52 | 29 | — | 12.8 |
| Barion BrownWR · LSU | #190 | 19% | — | 46 | 28 | 0.2 · 2g | 2.4 |
| Deion BurksWR · Oklahoma | #254 | 20% | 22.0 | 53 | 28 | 1.4 · 1g | 2.0 |
| Seth McGowanRB · Kentucky | #237 | 20% | 23.0 | 53 | 28 | 0.3 · 2g | 1.3 |
| CJ DanielsWR · Miami | #197 | 13% | — | 43 | 26 | — | 2.1 |
| Taylen GreenQB · Arkansas | #182 | 0.06 EPA | 23.0 | 38 | 25 | — | 10.8 |
| Kaden WetjenWR · Iowa | #121 | 8% | — | 21 | 25 | 0.0 · 2g | 3.1 |
| Garrett NussmeierQB · LSU | #249 | 0.03 EPA | — | 45 | 25 | — | 14.9 |
| Bryce LanceWR · North Dakota St. | #136 | — | — | — | 24 | 3.5 · 2g | — |
| Jam MillerRB · Alabama | #245 | 16% | — | 43 | 24 | — | 8.3 |
| Jack EndriesTE · Texas | #221 | 10% | — | 37 | 22 | — | 1.7 |
| Bauer SharpTE · LSU | #185 | 7% | — | 31 | 22 | 0.0 · 1g | 1.6 |
| Cole PaytonQB · North Dakota St. | #178 | — | 23.0 | — | 16 | — | — |
| Max BredesonTE · Michigan | #159 | 0% | — | 8 | 14 | — | 3.9 |
NFL is half-PPR per game over the first two seasons. A mark like 5.5 · 3g is a partial rookie season. Similar is the average early half-PPR of the three closest comps.
College receiving, rushing, and passing seasons 2012–2025 from the sportsdataverse ESPN files. Draft slot, age, and forty from nflverse. Early NFL scoring is this site's half-PPR over a player's first two seasons. Yards per route run and prospect grades are stronger efficiency stats, and they are not in these free files, so receivers use EPA per play instead. Undrafted free agents are left off because the public draft file cannot join them cleanly.