Week 3 Fantasy Recap

Alright, Sunday Night is in the books. Thursday was Atlanta at Green Bay. Eagles-Bears is tonight, so I’m skipping it. This is Week 3 through Denver’s 30–26 comeback.

Three weeks is when usage starts looking like a role. Health is doing the rest of the work.

Stock up: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker III, Brock Bowers, Chris Olave, Davante Adams, Christian McCaffrey, Rashee Rice, Harold Fannin Jr., Josh Downs, Jakobi Meyers, George Kittle, Bhayshul Tuten, Jordan Addison

Stock down / caution: Justin Jefferson (ankle), De'Von Achane (knee), Mike Evans (ribs), Caleb Williams (hamstring), Jayden Daniels (elbow), Puka Nacua (hip/groin), Justin Herbert and the Chargers, MarShawn Lloyd, Brian Thomas Jr., Marvin Harrison Jr., TreVeyon Henderson, Baker Mayfield (thumb)

The scoreboard, real quick

ATL 35–14 GB (Thu). SF 36–30 ARI. BAL 34–31 DAL (Rio). CLE 21–18 CAR. PIT 30–27 CIN. IND 19–17 HOU. KC 24–10 MIA. LV 35–27 NO. BUF 24–16 LAC. MIN 23–16 TB. JAX 35–6 NE. DET 31–24 NYJ. WAS 33–31 SEA. NYG 12–7 TEN. DEN 30–26 LAR.

Monday: Eagles at Bears, later.

Sticky things (the ones that might actually last)

Penix is back, and I have to eat the Bijan fade. I sat him out at cost all summer because I thought Atlanta would be bad with Tua Tagovailoa. Thursday was the other version. Michael Penix Jr. went 18-of-25 for 256. Bijan went 29-194-2 plus 2-19. London was 9-194 on 10 targets (43.5%). That’s a workhorse and a WR1 in the same offense. Brian Robinson still punched in a score (10-50-1). The split is real. The 194 yards are Bijan’s.

Gibbs is not cooling off. 20-99-2 plus 7-65-1 on 8 targets. Three scores. 69% of the snaps. That’s the passing-game work I wanted when I said get him under $70. Amon-Ra St. Brown still scored (4-19-1). The Lions still do not turn this backfield into a democracy.

JSN with Sam Darnold back is the same player he was with Drew Lock. 10-128-2 on 14 targets. Darnold went 31-of-45 for 379 and 4 scores and they still lost. I said the alpha role holds even if Seattle’s passing game gets worse. It has not gotten worse. JSN is the Seahawks offense.

Walker in a 24–10 win still got the job. 18-70-1 plus a receiving score. Three weeks of lead-back work. Patrick Mahomes was 20-of-24 for 246 and 2 scores. Rice went 7-88 on 9 targets (39.1%). That’s the Chiefs WR1 look I was waiting on. Emmett Johnson got 6-17. He’s still the handcuff. He’s not stealing this.

Olave is three weeks of WR1 volume. 9-107 on 13 targets (32.5%) after 10-182 and 8-86-1. Tyler Shough threw 4 scores and lost two fumbles. Juwan Johnson (8-53-2) and Noah Fant (4-33-2) ate the touchdowns. That’s noisy. Olave’s target share is not.

Bowers missed two games and then took 43% of the targets. 10-116-1 on 13 looks. Kirk Cousins went 22-of-33 for 248 and 3 scores. Ashton Jeanty still got 19-56 plus 3-37. Volume is sticky. Efficiency is still not. Mike Washington Jr. popped (5-54-1). Change-of-pace, not a timeshare. Bowers is a locked-in TE1 again. Stop streaming Tre Tucker.

CMC’s snap share finally climbed. 15-75-1 plus 4-41, 83% of the snaps. Kaelon Black was 4-17. I spent two weeks squinting at 10-carry games. This is the version I drafted. Brock Purdy threw 4 scores (15-of-27, 297). Kittle was 6-82-2. The committee yellow flag is fading.

Adams without Puka is not a one-week fluke. 7-137 on 13 targets after 8-195-2 on Monday Night. Matthew Stafford went 30-of-55 for 390. Kyren Williams was the actual fantasy night (15-88 plus 6-70). Tyler Higbee saw 11 targets (8-62-1). Terrance Ferguson disappeared (1-9 on 2). If Puka sits again, Adams is the alpha and Higbee is the tight end.

Tuten has the Jags lead-back job. 15-73-1. Three weeks of 13-plus carries. Trevor Lawrence threw 3 scores in a 35–6 win. Meyers went 7-64-1 on 8 targets (29.6%). Parker Washington still scored (3-40-1 on 5). Two weeks of 40% share, then Meyers took the looks in a blowout. The role is still there. The monopoly is not. BTJ was 1-8 on 1 target.

Fannin is the Browns passing game. 7-51-2 on 9 targets (30%). Deshaun Watson threw both scores to him. Denzel Boston was quiet (2-41) after touchdowns in each of the first two weeks. I’m not dumping Boston. I am treating Fannin like a TE1 until the 30% share proves to be a one-week thing.

Downs with Alec Pierce out: 5-77 on 11 targets (31.4%) after 7-72 on 9 last week. Keenan Allen scored (6-63-1). Tyler Warren saw 10 targets (9-55). Jonathan Taylor had 23-68 and no score. Volume RB. The Colts passing game without Pierce is Downs and Warren.

Injuries that actually change rest of season

Jefferson hurt the ankle on a catch-and-run at the end of Minnesota’s first drive. He walked off, tried to work through it, got close to returning, and was ruled out. Kevin O’Connell said they’ll know more Monday, and the early talk is “hope it’s low ankle” plus an MRI. Ankles lie. Addison became the offense (5-90-1 on 9 targets, 36% of the looks) and Aaron Jones stayed involved (17-58 plus 5-34). Kyler Murray was back from concussion protocol (15-of-29, 168, a score). If Jefferson sits, Addison is a must-start. If the MRI is a high ankle, that’s weeks.

Achane left on the opening drive with a knee and was ruled out at half. He finished 3-17. Ollie Gordon II inherited the job (17-41-1 plus 3-14). Jaylen Wright was already inactive. Miami is 0-3, Malik Willis threw for 210 with no scores, and the best player just went to the locker room. Gordon is the add. Achane’s Week 4 status versus Minnesota is the rest-of-season fulcrum for that backfield.

Evans got hit by Budda Baker, went to the tent, and left on a cart with ribs. He still scored (3-34-1) and flipped a hook-and-ladder to Deebo Samuel for the 82-yarder. That’s a fun clip. It’s also a 33-year-old who already dinged the hip last week, on a team that already lost Ricky Pearsall for the year, De'Zhaun Stribling for a couple months, and Demarcus Robinson to IR. If Evans misses time, Deebo is the 49ers WR you actually start. Kittle doesn’t need more help.

Caleb’s hamstring is a Grade 2. Reporting is three to four weeks. That’s the Bears passing game on pause, including Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III, until we see who’s under center after tonight. I raised Chicago’s scoring environment after 59 points in Week 1. Then they scored 3, lost the quarterback, and now it’s a real absence. Tyson Bagent versus the Eagles on Monday Night is not the offense I wanted.

Daniels is still out with the same left elbow, consulting a specialist. Season-ending surgery is still on the board. Marcus Mariota just threw 3 scores and beat the defending champs (19-of-31, 183). Terry McLaurin was 6-77-1 on 9 targets. Rachaad White caught the first score. Jacory Croskey-Merritt got 19 carries for 36 yards. If Daniels misses a handful, McLaurin is playable with Mariota. JCM’s rushing efficiency is not.

Jaxson Dart is done for the regular season. Surgery Friday, 4–6 months, MCL/PCL/meniscus. We covered that in the waiver post. Jameis Winston started and they won 12–7 (14-of-22, 118). Malik Nabers was 5-26. Cam Skattebo was the back (20-60 plus 3-40). Volume in a 12-point offense. That’s a dart, not a smash.

Puka was doubtful with the hip/groin and sat again. McVay’s team does not think he needs surgery. Groins linger. Have Adams locked in. Have a backup for Week 4 at Philadelphia.

Nico sat a second straight week (hamstring). Reporting is a decent chance for Week 4. Dalton Schultz did not feast this time (3-30 on 3). Xavier Hutchinson saw 6 looks. If Nico plays Dallas, Schultz goes back to the bench.

Flowers was a game-time decision, expected for 20–30 plays, and then went 5-84 plus a 20-yard carry on 21 snaps. Must-start when he’s out there. Don’t assume full snaps against Tennessee.

Jonah Coleman sat with an ankle. I told you to spend FAAB. That’s the risk. RJ Harvey came back and led Denver in targets (6-41 on 7). J.K. Dobbins got the early downs (17-49). Jaylen Waddle saw 7 targets and turned them into 2-10.

Baker hurt the thumb on a desperation throw late. Tampa is 0-3. I’m not starting him against Green Bay until we see a practice week.

Ladd McConkey played 88% of the snaps and finished 4-66 on 5 targets. That’s the health news I wanted. It’s still not the Ladd I spent the summer bidding on.

Dallas Goedert is out tonight. Saquon Barkley is expected to play after the stinger. I’ll leave the rest of that game for later.

Trending up (raise the rest-of-season number)

Bijan. Penix. London. I faded the Falcons. Thursday was the correction. Raise all three.

Gibbs. Three weeks. Workhorse. Passing-game work. This is the historic season profile.

JSN. Backup quarterback, starting quarterback, doesn’t matter. 31% of the targets in a 379-yard game is still an alpha.

Walker. Eighteen carries in a game they led the whole way. The 173-yard opener was the ceiling. The role is the floor.

Bowers. You don’t need a second week of this. 43% of the targets is the guy I wanted in the $30s.

CMC’s volume. One good snap-share game is not 2023. It is the first actual step toward it.

Adams, Rice, Olave, Tuten, Downs, Fannin. Two weeks of WR1 volume without Puka, a 39% share in Kansas City, three weeks of 10-target Olave, a lead-back job in Jacksonville, Pierce’s targets, and a 30% share tight end in Cleveland.

Meyers in that Jags offense. I flagged the jammed hand in camp. 7-64-1 on 8 targets in a blowout is the veteran doing veteran things. Parker still scored. You can like both. I would rather have Parker’s ceiling and Meyers’ floor.

Jaylen Warren went 17-127 plus 3-49 with Rico Dowdle out. Aaron Rodgers actually threw it (19-of-34, 292, 3 scores). Warren’s the back I’d rather have in Pittsburgh.

Ja'Marr Chase (9-98-1 on 12) and Tee Higgins (6-90-1). That’s just the Bengals. Keep starting them.

Kittle. Ramp-up is over. Two scores.

James Cook went 24-154-1. Josh Allen threw 2 picks, lost a fumble, and still ran in two scores. Buffalo is 3-0. Cook’s volume is the thing I was skeptical about in August. I’m raising it.

Christian Watson scored again (7-96-1 on 10). Matthew Golden went 5-100-1 on 12 targets. Jordan Love was 28-of-53 for 312 because Green Bay ran for 17 yards as a team. I was high on Watson in the auction plan. I’m not backing off. Golden’s targets keep showing up.

Kenyon Sadiq went 7-105-1. Garrett Wilson was 10-107-1 on 13. Geno Smith threw for 321 and they still lost. Sadiq is a real tight end in a bad offense. I’m raising him in deep leagues. I’m not calling him Bowers.

Michael Wilson saw 17 targets (11-89-1). Last year he helped me win the league off waivers. If that’s Arizona’s passing game, Wilson is the WR, not Harrison Jr.

Kyren with receiving work (6-70) is a better profile than the 12-carry split from Monday. Raise him a notch while Puka is out.

Trending the wrong way

Herbert and McDaniel. 20-of-34, 226 yards, a pick, and the Chargers are 0-3. Omarion Hampton got 15-56 and lost the receiving work to Keaton Mitchell (8-52 and a score). I was on the McDaniel hype train all summer. Three games. Sixteen, fourteen, sixteen. Ladd is healthier. The offense is not. Lower the passing-game projections until we see a functional half. Next week is Seattle.

Lloyd. Four carries, 11 yards. Kaleb Johnson had 4-6. Green Bay ran nine times for 17 yards. I flipped on Lloyd when Josh Jacobs hit the commissioner’s exempt list, then Week 1 and Week 2 looked like a committee, and Thursday was a punchline. Watson and Golden are the Packers fantasy players. The backfield is a dartboard. I’m out on Lloyd as a weekly start.

BTJ. One target in a 35-point game. Meyers and Parker ate. I thought Brian Thomas Jr. would be a stud last year too. Two years of this is a role change, not a slump.

Harrison Jr. Three weeks: 1-33, 0-catch, 3-40. McBride still ate (9-75 on 11). Wilson just saw 17 targets. I’m not starting Harrison until the target share looks like a WR2. Jeremiyah Love went 21-90 plus a receiving score. That’s the Cardinals back I’d actually use.

Henderson did not hold the lead job. 8-23 plus a catch. Rhamondre Stevenson was 7-22 with 3 catches. Drake Maye has 7 turnovers in 3 games. The Patriots scored 6. I wanted Henderson as the lead back I was watching for. One good week, then a 35–6 loss, and the committee is back. Sit him until the offense looks like an offense.

Waddle after the 138-yard game: 2-10 on 7 targets. Harvey led the team in targets. Sutton was 3-46. I said if Denver’s hierarchy is Waddle, he’s a weekly WR2. One comeback game is not a fade. It is a reminder that Bo Nix will spread it out. Don’t panic-sell. Don’t auto-start over actual WR2s this week at San Francisco.

Kincaid went 2-38 and lost a fumble. Allen turned it over five times and the Bills still won. Two weeks of TE1 tape, then a clunker. I’m not walking back the top-5 tight end thing. New England comes to Buffalo. Start him.

Bucky (15-46) in an 0-3 Tampa offense is a volume RB2 with a shrinking ceiling. Egbuka saw 9 targets (5-62) and that’s the process I wanted. Baker’s thumb is the new problem. I said I wasn’t trusting Baker as a weekly QB2 until the fumbles calmed down. The fumbles calmed down. The offense did not. Now the quarterback is hurt.

Hampton’s 23-carry week looks like the high. Fifteen carries, no receiving work, Mitchell on the field. I’m not dumping him. I’m lowering the RB1 talk.

Breece Hall was 13-32. Braelon Allen out-snapped him. Wilson and Sadiq are the Jets I’d rather have.

JCM’s 19 carries for 36 yards is committee-back tape with no efficiency. White scored. I wanted him as a $3 dart. That’s not a reason to start him over actual RBs.

Miami without Achane is Willis checkdowns. Malik Washington saw 10 targets (5-56). Dart, not a WR3 you feel good about.

Zay Flowers was great on a pitch count. Rashod Bateman was 2-37. If Flowers is full-go, Bateman goes back to the bench.

League-winner watch

Gibbs, if 20-plus touches and a receiving score is just a week. That’s a top-3 RB profile.

Bijan with Penix. I had him in the 1A tier next to Gibbs and then talked myself out of the cost. Thursday is why the cost was the cost.

JSN. Three weeks. Two quarterbacks. Still the WR1 on the board in PPR.

Walker, because Andy Reid with a real lead back is three games old and has not blinked.

Bowers, because tight end is where seasons get won and he just reminded everyone in one afternoon.

London if 40% of Penix’s looks is the new normal. That’s a late-round-turned-WR1 in best ball, and a “why did I fade Atlanta” in redraft.

Fannin is the cheaper version of the Bowers sentence. Not a first-round league winner. A waiver one. Those count too. Sadiq is in that conversation if Geno keeps throwing.

Adams for as long as Puka is out, and maybe after. Two straight 100-yard games is not “the other guy ate.”

A few more notes

Derrick Henry went 26-89-2. That’s Henry. CeeDee Lamb was 7-112. Don’t overthink him. Javonte Williams finally ran it (19-98-1). One game. I’m interested.

Chuba Hubbard went 19-82 plus 4-28. Bryce Young was 26-of-48 for 291 against Cleveland, the tougher draw I flagged. Tetairoa McMillan was 2-17. One quiet week. Don’t dump him.

Chase Brown was 13-61. Fine. Joe Burrow threw 3 scores. Cincinnati’s skill players are fine. Houston is 0-3. Woody Marks scored. David Montgomery was 11-33. Week 1 touchdowns were the mirage.

Cam Ward went 23-of-36 for 181. Tony Pollard had 17-74. Titans are 0-3. Superflex dart. Konata Mumpfield went 4-93-1 with Puka out. Last bench spot, not Ferguson money.

Bo Nix threw 2 scores, ran one in, and erased 16 points. That’s why Waddle’s target share can vanish in a win. Trey McBride still ate. Bank it.

What I’m watching

Tonight is Eagles-Bears. Saquon after the stinger. Goedert out. Caleb out. If you have DeVonta Smith or D'Andre Swift, you already know. I’ll leave it.

Jefferson’s MRI. That’s the biggest rest-of-season fulcrum of the week. Addison is the fill-in. A high ankle is a different season.

Achane’s knee. Gordon versus Minnesota is a start if Achane sits. If the MRI is ugly, Miami’s backfield is a dartboard on an 0-3 team.

Evans’ ribs. Denver visits San Francisco. Deebo is the contingency.

Daniels’ specialist visit. Elbow dislocations lie, and this is the same elbow, and surgery is still in the sentence.

Puka’s practice week. Groin/hip, two sits. Adams is locked in either way.

Nico versus Dallas. Have Hutchinson and Schultz ready if the hamstring talks again.

Baker’s thumb. Green Bay at Tampa is a game you want no part of if the quarterback can’t throw.

Ladd versus Seattle. Healthier. Still a brutal spot.

And then we can talk about the rest of Week 4 after the Sunday slate. Lions-Panthers on Sunday Night and Falcons-Saints on Monday can wait.