Week 4 Waiver Wire

Alright, Monday is in the books. Bears 27, Eagles 7. I skipped it in the last post on purpose. This is that game, then who I’m actually adding this week.

Three weeks of data and a pile of injuries. De'Von Achane is done. Baker Mayfield is out a handful. That’s when you win redraft leagues. Last year I won mine because of waiver adds. Don’t sit this one out.

Stock up: D'Andre Swift, Luther Burden III, Case Keenum (the offense, not the waiver add), DeVonta Smith

Stock down / caution: Jalen Hurts (concussion check, then the passing night), the Eagles offense, Tank Bigsby (fumble), Dallas Goedert (knee, multiple weeks)

The scoreboard, real quick

CHI 27–7 PHI.

Monday Night

I spent the Sunday recap telling you Tyson Bagent versus the Eagles was not the Chicago offense I raised after 59 points in Week 1. Bagent didn’t even play. Keenum did. Third-stringer. First start in almost three years.

And Ben Johnson still put 27 on a Super Bowl defense.

Keenum went 24-of-34 for 247 and 2 scores. Sneak for a third. Zero sacks. Zero turnovers. Chicago had the ball for 36:53, ran 69 plays, and never trailed. I have to eat the “this is not the offense I wanted” sentence. The quarterback changed. The script did not.

Burden was the usage. 7-61-1 on 11 targets, including the shovel on the opening drive. That’s the WR1 look with Caleb Williams in street clothes. Kalif Raymond ate the chunk (6-90-1), and the 41-yarder was busted coverage. Fun clip. Do not spend FAAB on a 32-year-old because Andrew Mukuba lost a footrace. Rome Odunze was 3-44 on 6. Colston Loveland was 4-31 on 4. If you have Loveland, you start him. If you don’t, this was not the night that makes him a must-add.

Swift still won the fantasy night on the ground. 20-84. Kyle Monangai mixed in for 10-31. Same split I flagged after Week 1. Swift got the work. Neither scored. Keenum stole the sneak. That’s the yellow flag in this backfield. The 20 carries are not.

The Eagles lost the game in the second quarter and spent the rest of the night proving it. Hurts went 16-of-25 for 153, no passing scores, a pick, and he left for a concussion evaluation after a late hit out of bounds. Andy Dalton came in for one throw. Interception. End zone. First-and-goal at the 1, and they came away with nothing. Hurts returned. The offense did not.

Saquon Barkley was the first-half version (73 of his 82 yards before the break) and then the second-half version (4-9). One catch, minus-2. That’s one reception in each of the first three games. Volume RB2 with a touchdown button. The Rams at home this week is a better script than this one.

Smith was the only Eagle who looked like a WR1. 6-65 on 8 targets, the 30-yarder, and the catch that set up the tush push as the half expired. That’s the whole Philadelphia scoring night. Dontayvion Wicks saw 5 targets (2-32). Makai Lemon saw 4 (3-29). Goedert sat again and is expected to miss multiple weeks. Zach Ertz got the welcome-back snap and turned it into 1-9.

Bigsby caught one ball and fumbled it. Keep him if you already rostered the handcuff. Don’t chase him after Monday.

Three turnovers. 2-of-9 on third down. 23:07 of possession. 248 yards. The Bears did not sack Hurts into oblivion. They just never gave the ball back.

Rams at Philadelphia is Sunday. If Puka Nacua sits a third straight week, Davante Adams is a smash and Tyler Higbee is the tight end. If Puka is in, this Eagles tape is still a problem for anyone expecting Hurts to throw you into a win.

The waiver wire

Sunday created the board. Monday just confirmed Ben Johnson can feed skill players even when the quarterback is 38. Roster rates below are the “still sitting in most redraft leagues” kind of number — call it under 50% on ESPN and Yahoo, with a couple of notes where the platforms disagree.

Spend your FAAB like a person who has watched three weeks, not like a person who watched one box score. Achane tearing an ACL is not the same claim as Breece Hall being week-to-week.

QB

Sam Darnold (mid-30s). 31-of-45 for 379 and 4 scores against Washington. I said in the Sunday recap that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the same player with Darnold as he was with Drew Lock. The quarterback is now the stream. Chargers this week are 0-3 and just lost to Buffalo without looking like Justin Herbert’s offense. If your starter is Herbert, Mayfield, or Drake Maye, this is the add.

Deshaun Watson (high single digits). Multiple passing scores, zero picks, in back-to-back weeks, and he’s still running it (20-plus rushing yards in all three games). Thursday against Pittsburgh is a tougher draw. I’m not starting him on a short week against that front. I am rostering him for the Jets in Week 5 and the Titans in Week 7. That’s a cheap QB2 with legs.

Jacoby Brissett (under 5%). 280 yards, 2 passing scores, a rushing score against San Francisco. The Giants this week are the spot — Jaxson Dart is done for the year and Jameis Winston just won 12–7. Detroit after that, which is when Kansas City and Carolina are on bye. Superflex, he’s a start. 1QB, he’s the stream if Darnold is gone. Michael Penix Jr. is sitting in the same ownership bucket. I’m taking Brissett’s two-week runway over one Monday Night date in New Orleans.

RB

Ollie Gordon II is the FAAB hammer. About 1% on ESPN, 4% on Yahoo. Achane tore the left ACL. Season. I told you Sunday that Gordon inherited the job (17-41-1 plus 3-14). Jaylen Wright was already inactive. Miami is 0-3 and Malik Willis is the quarterback, so don’t bid like you just found 2023 Achane. Bid like you need a running back who will see 15-plus touches on an island. Volume is sticky even when the offense is not. Minnesota this week is a brutal draw. The role is the reason you’re here.

Braelon Allen (mid-teens). Hall left Sunday with a quad/thigh, and the MRI was better than the worst-case version. Week-to-week, not months. He is not expected to play against Chicago. Allen played every snap after Hall left. Isaiah Davis did not steal the work. If you have Hall, this is your claim. If you don’t, Allen is still an RB2/flex for however long this lasts, and the next three weeks are Chicago, Cleveland, New England. Don’t pay Gordon money. Do not let Hall owners get him for $3 either.

Keaton Mitchell (mid-teens on ESPN, closer to 30% on Yahoo). 8-52 and a receiving score against Buffalo. Three fewer snaps than Omarion Hampton, more than twice the routes. I lowered Hampton after he lost the receiving work. You’re not starting Mitchell over actual RBs while Hampton is healthy. You are rostering the explosive one in a backfield Mike McDaniel is already splitting.

Wright is 1–2% and I put him in the sleeper bin. Treat Gordon as the add and Wright as the extra ticket.

WR

Keenan Allen (low 20s). Alec Pierce is on IR. Daniel Jones threw 35 times against Houston and 30 of them went to Tyler Warren, Josh Downs, and Allen. Allen was 6-63-1 on 9 targets. I know he’s 34. I also know he keeps earning the looks. London against Washington is a plus spot if you need a WR3/flex, and the early reporting on Pierce is “maybe more than four weeks.” I’m not paying Gordon money. I am putting in a claim.

Malik Washington (low teens to 20%). Team-high 10 targets against Kansas City (5-56), and he even lined up in the backfield after Achane left. I called him a dart in the Sunday recap. Achane’s season ending turns the dart into a volume WR3 in a bad offense. That’s not a WR1. It is the most stable target share left in Miami. Chris Bell is the deeper stash. Washington is the one I’d actually start in a pinch this week.

Adonai Mitchell (low 30s). Missed Detroit with a finger. Before that it was 12 targets against Green Bay. People will forget him because he posted a zero. Don’t. Geno Smith is still throwing, Garrett Wilson cleared the concussion, and Mitchell is the WR2 in that room when he’s active. Chicago this week is a plus spot if the finger is a one-week sit.

Wicks is flirting with 50%. If he’s still sitting there after Monday’s 5 targets with Goedert out, he’s a fine WR3. I’m not burning a top claim on 2-32.

TE

Kenyon Sadiq (low 30s on ESPN, high teens on Yahoo). 7-105-1 on 8 targets. I raised him Sunday as a real tight end in a bad offense and said I wasn’t calling him Brock Bowers. I’m still not. I am telling you to spend the tight end FAAB. Mason Taylor sat. The route rate was still under 65% and he put up a TE1 line anyway. Chicago this week, Cleveland after that. If your starter is a stream, this is the upgrade.

Oronde Gadsden II (around 15%). I wanted him last week when David Njoku got carted off. If your league slept, take him. The committee lost the veteran. Seattle this week is not a gift. The opportunity is.

Pat Freiermuth (low 20s). He draws Cleveland on Thursday. If you need a one-week tight end and Sadiq/Gadsden are spoken for, this is the stream. Noah Fant scored twice on Sunday (4-33-2) and is sitting in almost every league. That’s noisy. Juwan Johnson is the sticky Saints tight end, and he’s already rostered in more than half of leagues. Don’t chase two-score Fant. Go get Sadiq.

Terrance Ferguson dinged the ankle on Sunday Night. I told you to add him after the nine-target Monday. Now he’s a stash until we see a practice week. If Ferguson sits and Puka sits, Higbee is the Rams tight end.

Deep sleepers (under 5%)

Jaylen Wright (around 2%). The other Miami back. Inactive last week with the foot/stinger. Achane is gone for the year. Gordon got the 17 carries because he was the only halfback dressed. If Wright is healthy, this becomes a committee on an 0-3 team, and committees on 0-3 teams are how you lose FAAB. I would not start him. I would roster him in 12- and 14-teamers next to Gordon if you have a last bench spot. One of these two will eat. I’d rather have both tickets than guess.

Tre Harris (around 3%). 6-76 on 7 targets against Buffalo. Team lead. Quentin Johnston has been a brick. I lowered the Chargers passing game after three weeks of 16, 14, 16. Harris is the one piece that’s trending the right way. Seattle and Denver the next two weeks are nasty. I’m not starting him there. I am taking the shot if I have a last bench spot, because second-year receivers who steal the WR2 job in October are how benches turn into playoff rosters.

Gordon is 1% and I already put him in the RB section. That’s how you should treat him. Don’t hide a 20-touch night behind a season-ending ACL in the sleeper bin.

D/ST (next 2–3 weeks)

If your league still uses a defense, stop streaming week to week like it’s 2014. Grab a unit with a two- or three-week runway.

Packers (high teens to low 30s). Tampa Bay this week, Chicago, then Dallas. Mayfield’s thumb is a dislocation, no fracture, no tendon, and Todd Bowles said a minimum of three weeks. Jalon Daniels is the starter. Tampa is 0-3. Chicago is starting Keenum or Bagent against the Jets first, then they come to Green Bay. That’s two backup-quarterback games in a row. Dallas in Week 6 is the step down. I’d rather have two smash weeks than a one-week dart.

Saints (low single digits). Atlanta at home on Monday Night, Minnesota, at the Giants. I told you this was the best available three-week slate a week ago. It still is. Penix just dropped 256 on Green Bay, so this is not the “Atlanta’s quarterback room is a crisis” version anymore. It is still a home date against a quarterback who took 13 sacks in nine starts last year, then a Vikings team that might be without Justin Jefferson, then Winston’s Giants. Five takeaways and seven sacks through three games. Nobody is going to fight you for this.

Giants (around 10%). Arizona, at Washington, New Orleans. They got dropped on national TV last week and then won 12–7 against Tennessee, so the brand is still in the gutter. Kyler Murray just threw for 168. Washington is Marcus Mariota. Tyler Shough has been fun and also a turnover machine. The Giants offense is the problem. The schedule is not.

Minnesota is rostered in about half of ESPN leagues and still sitting in some Yahoo rooms. Miami at home this week is the smash of the week. Then New Orleans, then a bye. If they’re available, they’re the adult pick for two weeks. If they’re gone, use a claim on Green Bay.

What I’m watching

Jefferson’s ankle. MRI is a sprain. O’Connell said nothing long-term, day-to-day, get the swelling out. That’s the good version of Sunday’s sentence. If he sits against Miami, Jordan Addison is a smash. If he plays, you start Jefferson anyway.

Achane is done. Full stop. Gordon is the add. Wright is the dart.

Hall’s quad. Better MRI, still out this week. Allen is a start against Chicago if you need a back.

Mayfield, three weeks minimum. Bucky Irving in an 0-3 offense with a rookie quarterback is a volume RB2 with a shrinking ceiling. Packers D/ST is the other side of that sentence.

Puka’s practice week. Third chance. Adams is locked in either way. Higbee is the tight end if both Puka and Ferguson sit.

Nico Collins versus Dallas. Have Xavier Hutchinson and Dalton Schultz ready if the hamstring talks again.

Hurts returned Monday. I’m not sitting him against the Rams. I am watching the practice report.

Thursday is Pittsburgh at Cleveland. If you streamed Freiermuth, that’s your game. If you streamed Watson, sit him.

And then we can talk about the rest of Week 4 after the Sunday slate. Lions-Panthers on Sunday Night and Falcons-Saints on Monday can wait.